By James Devonshire
Forrester has released its Smart Manufacturing and Mobility predictions for 2025.
Following in the footsteps of the findings of its The Future of Manufacturing report, Forrester says we can expect to see four big trends continue to shape the manufacturing and mobility industries next year:
With that in mind, here are Forrester’s five main predictions for smart manufacturing and mobility in 2025:
Prediction one: over 25% of big last-mile service and delivery fleets in Europe will be electric
Despite electric passenger vehicle sales slowing across many markets this year, Forrester believes last-mile vehicles will witness an electric spurt in 2025.
From vehicles used for last-mile deliveries and utility company meter readers to local government operations, EVs will become a lot more ubiquitous.
Citing the recent Optimise Prime project in the UK, Forrester said ‘big fleet operators are setting and meeting ambitious targets’. Indeed, one-third of leading parcel delivery network DPD’s last-mile UK fleet is already fully electric. This rises to 90% in cities like London. Meanwhile, British Gas is aiming to electrify its entire van fleet in 2025.
Prediction two: less than 5% of the robots entering factories and warehouses will walk
Forrester says that, while humanoid form robots, like those developed by Boston Dynamics, Figure and Tesla, are impressive feats of innovation, they are not the most effective for ‘significant industrial automation initiatives’.
‘A lower center of gravity, stronger arms, or wheels may all help deliver more cost-effective outcomes’, said Forrester.
Prediction three: over 50% of manufacturers will have to slow electrification as the grid fails to keep up
As manufacturers continue to make the switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, national and regional electricity networks will struggle to keep up with demand, with Ofgem estimating that UK demand could grow by 64% by 2035.
Exacerbating the situation, Forrester says, is a ‘decade-long queue’ of 800 GW of renewable capacity waiting to be connected to the grid.
Prediction four: a major carmaker will make significant cuts to its digital team
Forreseter’s final manufacturing and mobility prediction for 2025 is that we will see a major automotive company slash its digital team.
This prediction is based partly on General Motors’ (GM) decision in August 2024 to cut 1,000 employees from its software and services division. GM had previously announced plans to earn between $20bn and $25bn in “annual software and services revenue opportunities” by 2030.
Prediction five: Chinese manufacturers will move into their competitors’ backyards
In response to Western manufacturers onshoring and reshoring production from the Far East, Chinese firms will look to move their manufacturing operations closer to the West, particularly Europe.
Chinese passenger battery EV and plug-in hybrid EV maker, BYD, has already announced plans to open facilities in Hungary and Turkey. Furthermore, Chery Auto previously announced a joint venture in Spain; Rich PV a solar panel factory in Serbia; and CATL already makes batteries in Germany. Forrester says more is to follow in 2025.
Not only will this Chinese manufacturing spread allow firms to circumvent sanctions and reduce shipping costs, it will also highlight how Chinese companies are successfully harnessing advancements like AI to advance their capabilities, a reality, Forrester says, that will likely require Europe to ‘revise its outdated view of Chinese manufacturing’.
‘Grappling with big multi-year trends’
Speaking about Forrester’s 2025 Manufacturing and Mobility predictions, Dr. Paul Miller, Vice President, Principal Analyst at Forrester, told The Manufacturer: “The manufacturing sector continues to grapple with big multi-year trends, like electrification, a global rebalancing of manufacturing capacity, and the ongoing skills shortage.
“By focusing on just five predictions for 2025, we can show how these bigger trends will meet shopfloor reality. On electrification, for example, there are real opportunities to electrify local delivery fleets, but problems in securing the power that big manufacturing facilities will need to run their operations. Or with skills, the automotive sector still struggles to digitise a century-old industry, and no one can quite work out how best to augment a human workforce with the walking robots that so excited investors in 2024.”
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